Mclaren vs Red Bull: Can Lando Norris beat Max Verstappen to the top – a statistical deep dive

When the 2024 Formula One season began at the Bahrain Grand Prix in March, it was as if nothing had really changed. Defending champion Max Verstappen won in an all too similar fashion — with no car visible in his mirrors as he crossed the finish line 20 seconds ahead of the driver behind.

But fate decided to switch things up along the way, giving F1 fans a much-needed shuffle in the pecking order. It may have taken 17 races since Bahrain, but the miracle that ensued at the Singapore Grand Prix last month made the wait all the more worthwhile.

Lando Norris, in a special orange and white livery reminiscent of McLaren’s old trademark look, dominated at the Marina Bay Circuit, increasing his lead over Verstappen’s Red Bull until he was completely out of sight, and ultimately taking the win with a commanding 20-second advantage.

The World Drivers’ Championship (WDC), which once looked like a done deal, has now been thrown wide open, with Norris within striking distance of the top spot. Although Verstappen’s great start to the season was followed by some forgettable races, the cushion of his earlier points has helped him maintain a lead at the top.

But no one expected a serious challenger to the throne or anyone remotely standing in the way of the Dutchman’s fourth successive crown. While Verstappen may have faced a peaking Lewis Hamilton and the occasional threat from Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc in the recent past, not many would have expected McLaren and Norris to be a threat this time. To put it in perspective, Norris, who had never won a race in his five previous F1 seasons, has won three this year. His teammate, Oscar Piastri, has also secured his first two P1 finishes in 2024. After 10 long years, McLaren now leads the World Constructors’ Championship (WCC), an accolade it last won in 1998.

So, what changed?

Given how McLaren started the season — just two podium finishes in five races — the sheer pace and performance that its MCL38 recently unleashed has raised eyebrows.

The car was given a significant revamp at the Miami GP, with major upgrades for Norris. While the 24-year-old’s maiden F1 win there can’t entirely be attributed to the modifications — since a timely Safety Car did help him — the subsequent results since then give more credence to the upgrade.

In the last 13 races, at least one of McLaren’s drivers has finished in the top three, with the team having even secured double podium finishes in three races. Its average points scored per weekend surged from 19.2 to 32.3.

In the 18 races so far, McLaren has already doubled its podium count from 2023. Its drivers could get a best finish of only second place last season, but this year it has stayed on top not once, but five times, that too after a three-year drought.

In fact, McLaren concluded the 22-race 2023 season with 302 points, finishing fourth in the constructors’ standings. But after three-quarters of this season, the Woking-based team holds the top spot with 516 points. Its average points per weekend also increased from 13.73 to 28.63.

Championship conundrum

A 41-point advantage may not guarantee McLaren the elusive Constructors’ Championship, but the incredible performances of both drivers and the team’s upward trajectory since Miami suggest otherwise.

McLaren has scored 420 points in the last 13 races, while its closest rival, Red Bull — which it overtook in the leaderboard after Piastri’s win in Azerbaijan — has scored only 280, mostly through Verstappen.

If McLaren continues to gather solid points in the remaining races, the championship trophy could return to the eight-time winners. But this success might come at the cost of an ambitious, yet possible, WDC title for Norris, who currently sits second in the standings.

The British driver is having his best season yet and remains the strongest of the six drivers still capable of snatching the WDC from Verstappen. Whether Norris has caught up or Verstappen has simply held on is hard to say, as both have scored identical points since round six — 221 each — with 11 podiums apiece.

The 110-point run that Verstappen had established early in the season, when Norris managed only 58 points, keeps the Dutchman ahead. Remarkably, the gap between them has remained at 52 points, despite Verstappen not claiming top honours since the Spanish GP in June.

Consistent top-10 finishes in every race thereon have helped Verstappen thwart any serious threat from Norris, who has been climbing the standings rapidly. At this rate, Verstappen could continue to offset the gains made by Norris, even if he finishes behind him.

Every additional point will count for McLaren’s No. 1 driver if he wants to fight for the championship. In that case, Piastri may be expected to make way for him, which wouldn’t be ideal if the team has its sights set on the constructors’ title. Both drivers will likely be instructed to maximise points, regardless of who finishes ahead.

With only a quarter of the season remaining, all eyes are on the McLaren pit wall — will it focus on securing the constructors’ championship, or will it allow its frontrunner to chase the drivers’ crown? It’s all coming down to the wire!