Carlos Alcaraz on the rebound after Indian Wells win

“It’s not a video game, but it’s almost like it” — Tennis Channel analyst, Paul Annacone, on the spectacular athleticism and shot-making during Carlos Alcaraz’s 1-6, 6-3, 6-2 semifinal victory over Jannik Sinner.

A dream showdown featuring the sport’s most enticing new rivalry appeared inevitable at the tournament that calls itself ‘Tennis Paradise.’

With shock and awe victories, Alcaraz and Sinner strutted into the semifinals at the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells. The dynamic Spaniard dropped just 22 games and the explosive Italian only 23 against four overmatched foes apiece.

The only drama before their rendezvous was a bee invasion during Alcaraz’s quarterfinal against Alexander Zverev. One of the fastest players in tennis history swerved and sprinted in every direction but still got stung. “There were thousands flying and [getting] stuck in my hair, I was running everywhere,” Alcaraz said. “I’m not going to lie. I’m a little afraid of bees.” He showed no fear, though, of 6’6” Zverev or his rocket first serve—which averaged a Tour-high 129.5 mph last year — and routed the sixth-seeded German 6-3, 6-1.

The winner of the Alcaraz-Sinner battle would seize the No. 2 ranking. But why not the No. 1 ranking?

Although Sinner outclassed Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open semifinals and outlasted Daniil Medvedev in the final, the slumping Serb still ranks No. 1. In fact, Djokovic, who suffered a shocking third-round loss to 123rd-ranked Luca Nardi at Indian Wells, led No. 2 Alcaraz by a solid, but surmountable 920 ranking points, as of March 18. With massive points to defend from his extraordinary 2023—when he captured three majors, reached the final of another, and won the ATP Finals and two Masters 1000 events—Novak who turns 37 on May 22, will likely lose the top spot sooner or later this year.

Sinner, 22, and Alcaraz, 20, had far different trajectories going into their duel in the desert. Jannik, whose technically perfect game resembles Novak Djokovic’s but with more power, had amassed a 19-0 winning streak (16-0 this season) and racked up a terrific 10-1 record against top-5 opponents in the past five months. Against his top rivals, Sinner led Djokovic 3-1, Alcaraz 1-0, and Daniil Medvedev 4-0.

In sharp contrast, Alcaraz hadn’t won a tournament since he dethroned seven-time champion Djokovic in the memorable 2023 Wimbledon final. Poor planning and bad luck contributed to Alcaraz’s disappointing, four-set quarterfinal loss to Alexander Zverev at the 2024 Australian Open. He didn’t play a tune-up tournament Down Under, and his highly regarded coach, Juan Carlos Ferrero, who underwent knee surgery in December, missed the year’s opening major while rehabbing in Spain. As a result, Alcaraz’s shot selection and confidence suffered.

He didn’t fare any better in February when he played two clay events in South America, losing in the Buenos Aires semifinals and spraining his ankle in his first match at Rio de Janeiro. The lingering injury forced him to end his first practice at Indian Wells after 30 minutes. But during the trophy presentation, the youthful Spaniard said, “After every match, I was feeling better.”

During the semifinals, Ferrero shouted advice and encouragement from the Player’s Box as he matched tactical wits with another superb coach, Darren Cahill — who achieved renown by guiding Lleyton Hewitt, Andre Agassi, and Simona Halep to world No. 1 rankings — in Sinner’s camp.

Cahill, nicknamed ‘Killer’ during his pro career, steadily developed the mild-mannered Sinner into an assassin on the court. Since he joined Sinner’s coaching team in July 2022, the lanky 6’3” Italian has added finesse to his previously one-dimensional power game, strengthened his second serve, and, most importantly, improved his athleticism and defence.

With a more complete game and smart tactics to implement it, Jannik captured seven titles and boosted his ranking from No. 10 to a career-high No. 3.

Alcaraz, despite winning two Grand Slam titles and becoming the youngest man at 19 in the Open Era to rank No. 1, is also an unfinished product. To beat Sinner, who won their last two matches and led 4-3 in their budding rivalry, he’d have to improve his tactics and control his emotions.

Slugging it out with Sinner proved to be a losing formula for Alcaraz. So Ferrero, the 2003 French Open champion, devised a new game plan. “Juan Carlos told me they’ve been doing drills where Carlos has to hit two looping topspin shots,” said Tennis Channelanalyst and former No. 1 Jim Courier. “Then he’s allowed to play an aggressive shot and then go back to it [variety] and throw in a slice. They’re trying to program Carlos to be a little less risky because his instincts are all aggression all the time.”

Alas, a nervous Alcaraz lost the plot in the first set. Sinner thrived in a baseline slugfest, winning twice as many points (28 to 14) and the set 6-1.

The tide turned in the second set when Alcaraz deployed a variety of smart tactics. The Spaniard retreated farther behind the baseline, a la Medvedev, to return Sinner’s booming serve more consistently. He changed pace to disrupt Sinner’s rhythm and to recover when he was out of position.

Like a boxer jabbing to set up knockout punches, Alcaraz put more balls in play and, when he saw an opening, attacked with explosive forehands. To keep Sinner off balance, he served and volleyed on occasion, and, of course, hit devilish drop shots.

Carlos broke serve for 3-1 with a volley winner set up by a 97-mph forehand. Serving for the second set, he saved a break point with a bold backhand winner that smacked the sideline and clinched it with a deceptive forehand drop shot winner. 6-3 for Alcaraz.

Sinner had lost the momentum but not his fighting spirit. The critical point in the deciding set came at 1-all with Sinner serving to escape his second break point. Like a high-speed video game, it ended in a spectacular second. Alcaraz sprinted for a net cord as if his life depended on reaching it. He scraped it up only to set up Sinner, who drilled a forehand crosscourt passing shot. Alcaraz dove for it, and seemingly put the ball away with a volley.

But just as desperately, Sinner dove for it and somehow reflexed a low backhand over the net. Alcaraz recovered in time to deliver a backhand volley winner. Athleticism trumped determination.

Sinner landed on his left wrist. He didn’t call for the trainer. How much it affected his play, we may never know. Like a true competitor, he soldiered on and didn’t make excuses.

But Alcaraz raced to a 5-1 lead. Before Sinner served the next game, Cahill yelled, “Try something different this game. You never know what can happen. Be unpredictable, mate!”

It was too late, though. The irresistible force called Alcaraz prevailed 1-6, 6-3, 6-2. He then went on to defend his Indian Wells title in the final, snapping the longest title drought of his young, but brilliant, career.

“This [match against Sinner] was one of the most intelligent performances we’ve seen — tactically astute,” said Jason Goodall, a  Tennis Channel analyst, while Juan Carlos Ferrero pointed to his head.

Both a slump and a streak were broken, and both stars benefited from yet another thrilling encounter.

“It’s difficult to put it into words, because I had really difficult months,” Alcaraz said afterward. “Let’s say the last two months it was difficult for me to find myself. I didn’t enjoy stepping on the court. I wasn’t myself on the court the last two months, three months, so it was difficult for me. It doesn’t matter what problems you have. If you believe in yourself, you have a really good team around you, you work hard, everything can turn around. I think that’s the biggest lesson that I take from this tournament.”

Sinner will go back to the drawing board with coach Cahill and undoubtedly make some tactical changes. “You are always impressed when you play against him,” a gracious Sinner said. “He’s moving really, really fast, as we know. Especially on this court, where the ball bounces really high, it’s not easy to play against him because he can play with a lot of spin. But what I have missed today [is] that I was too predictable at some points. I was doing the same things over and over again, which in my mind let me down. I think that’s the lesson for today.”

It may seem harsh to downplay the final as anticlimactic given that Medvedev ranks No. 4 in the world and that he defeated Alcaraz in the US Open semifinals just six months ago. But even on his best surface, hard courts, and in fine form at Indian Wells — beating No. 29 Sebastian Korda, No. 13 Grigor Dimitrov, No. 7 Holger Rune, and No. 17 Tommy Paul — Medvedev lacks the athleticism, volley, and stamina to defeat Alcaraz, Sinner, and Djokovic… if the GOAT regains his form and motivation.

Motivation may be a larger factor than many considered following Djokovic’s surprise announcement on March 16 of his withdrawal from the Miami Open on social media, saying he needs to balance his “private and professional schedule.”

Former world No. 12 Paolo Bertolucci revealed the cause of Djokovic’s malaise. “I spoke with some Serbian colleagues. Apparently, at the moment, Djokovic’s head is not very focused on tennis,” Bertolucci told Sky Sports Italia. “He will probably take some days off and then try to reach his best level for the clay season.”

Djokovic looked happy and relaxed when he attended the March 16 Warriors-Lakers game in Los Angeles. An NBA fan, especially of fellow Serb superstar Nikola Jokic, Novak swapped a tennis racket for an autographed jersey with Steph Curry.

For the record, Alcaraz outclassed Medvedev 7-6 (5), 6-1 to become only the second man since 1990 to win five Masters 1000 titles before turning 21 — the other being compatriot Rafael Nadal. The triumph was also Alcaraz’s fourth in his last five matches against the Russian, without giving up a single set in any of them.

Hitting his forehand harder than ever at 82 mph and returning serve 7-8 feet closer to the baseline than usual, Medvedev surged to a 3-0 lead. From then on, “The Octopus” couldn’t contain the Spaniard’s aggression.

“Alcaraz has as much power per pound as anyone in men’s tennis,” said Courier.

Other than lapses in concentration and shot selection, Alcaraz doesn’t have any weaknesses, either.

Some experts might pick out the Alcaraz backhand as a relative weakness compared to his many strengths or the backhands of Djokovic and Sinner. Not Medvedev. When asked about the best shots he’s ever faced, the Russian surprisingly included Alcaraz’s backhand.

“He’s back! Watch out, rest of the tour!” said Paul Annacone, a  Tennis Channel analyst.

The rest of the tour will soon include another protégé of Juan Carlos Ferrero. A highly touted American talent named Darwin Blanch has honed his skills at Ferrero’s tennis academy in Villena, Spain, where he often practices with Alcaraz. A year ago at age 15, the 6’3” lefty whacked a 135 mph serve. Further, the Miami polyglot speaks Chinese, Thai, and Spanish, in addition to his native English.

Blanch made his ATP Tour debut as a wild card on March 20 at the Miami Open, becoming the fifth youngest at 16½ to play a Masters 1000 match. Although he lost 6-4, 6-2 to No. 60 Tomas Machac, the teenager flashed plenty of potential. “He has a lot of power, and when he learns to harness it, he’ll be very dangerous, similar to [No. 17 Ben] Shelton,” said  Tennis Channel analyst Martina Navratilova. “The kid has a great future.”