Candidates 2024: Gukesh, Nepomniachtchi, Nakamura, Caruana – Title race scenarios explained

FIDE Candidates 2024 is heading into a thrilling endgame with four contenders going head-to-head to clinch the top spot in the men’s category with just two rounds remaining.

India’s D Gukesh has trumped the predictions of many by going into Round 13 in joint lead at 7.5 points, along with Russia’s Ian Nepomniachtchi and USA’s Hikaru Nakamura, whose compatriot Fabiano Caruana is right behind with 7.0 points.

The winner of the Candidates will clinch a chance to challenge Ding Liren for the title of world champion later in the year.

Remaining Matches

D Gukesh – (R13 vs Firouzja/ R14 vs Nakamura)

Gukesh’s best chance comes in Round 13 where he will take on seventh-placed Alireza Firouzja with white pieces. The Indian though has lost to the Frenchman in Round 7, crumbling under an intense time pressure.

Firouzja has had an off-colour tournament, with off-board controversies taking up the headlines for the 20-year-old.

Gukesh’s task will be harder in the final round, where he will be with black pieces against Nakamura. The pair had settled for a draw in their previous encounter. But the American GM has been in stirring form in the second half of the tournament, winning four of his five games.

Ian Nepomniachtchi (R13 vs Nakamura/ R14 vs Caruana)

Nepomniachtchi probably has the toughest run in among the title contenders, with the Russian slated to take on the top-seeded American pair. He will be with white against Nakamura and black against Caruana.

The Russian has been resilient over the course of the tournament, often salvaging draws out of detrimental positions to remain unbeaten.

Hikaru Nakamura (R13 vs Nepomniachtchi/ R14 vs Gukesh)

Most of the experts had slated Nakamura as the favourite going into the tournament. But the American started feebly, winning just one of his first seven games.

But Nakamura has struck form at the right time, going into Round 13 on the back of three back-to-back wins. He will take on Nepomniachtchi in the penultimate round with black pieces before round-up with a clash against Gukesh with white.

Fabiano Caruana (R13 vs Praggnanandhaa/ R14 vs Nepomniachtchi)

Caruana, much like Nakamura, has turned things around in the second half of the Candidates and has parked himself 0.5 points behind the lead trio.

His penultimate test will be against India’s R Praggnanandhaa with black pieces and will close it out with a clash against fellow title contender Nepomniachtchi

Scenarios

As per the stat model by Chess by the Numbers (a popular stat-based chess analysis social media page) there is a 62.4% chance of a sole winner emerging after Round 14. The model also projects that there is a 17.1 percent chance of a two-way tie and a 20.5 percent chance three or more players to end up level on the top.

With multiple clashes between contenders and end-tournament fatigue looking likely, a lot more turmoil can be expected.

If there is a tie for the top spot after the final round, the tournament will progress into tiebreaker on April 23.