Candidates 2024: Nakamura, Caruana, Nepomniachtchi pose stiff challenge to Indian contenders

The flavour may be more Indian at the Candidates in Toronto, but two Americans look the strongest contenders along with a Russian who has won the tournament’s last two editions.

R. Praggnanandhaa, D. Gukesh and Vidit Gujrathi have ensured India has a strong presence — not to mention Koneru Humpy and R. Vaishali in the women’s event. But they are up against very strong opposition.

Americans Fabiano Caruana and Hikaru Nakamura should be most people’s favourites. And Russia’s Ian Nepomniachtchi cannot be ignored.

In order to win the tournament and thus earn the right to challenge Ding Liren for the World Chess Championship, the Indians have to find ways to race ahead of their formidable opponents.

Caruana and Nakamura have been among the world’s best players for a long time. Caruana is ranked second in the world behind five-time World champion Magnus Carlsen, who relinquished the title, paving the way for last year’s World title match between Ding and Nepomniachtchi.

Caruana is the player to beat in Toronto. With 2804 Elo points, he is just 26 behind Carlsen, the world’s strongest player of all time. Caruana’s peak rating was 2844 and, apart from Carlsen (2882), only one other player has ever been rated higher — Garry Kasparov (2851).

Caruana is also a former winner of the Candidates. He won it in 2018 and took on Carlsen for the World championship later that year. After all the 12 games (classical format) were drawn, he lost in the tiebreaker (rapid). Caruana, in fact, had an opportunity to challenge Carlsen in the 2016 World championship as well: he finished second to Sergey Karjakin in the Candidates that year.

Caruana, who became the World No. 2 for the first time in 2014, has been a consistent performer. He has a strong game with no apparent weakness. Carlsen has in fact gone on record saying that he is the world’s second-best player.

Nakamura may not be as consistent as Caruana in classical chess, but he too has been one of the world’s top talents for a long time. And he has been a beast in speed chess.

Besides the formats of shorter time controls, he also enjoys playing Fischer random chess, a format in which he won the world title in 2022. He is, of course, a formidable presence in classical chess, in which he is ranked third in the world with 2789 points, behind Carlsen and Caruana.

He had become the World No. 2 in 2015 and a year before that, when FIDE began publishing ratings for the rapid and blitz variations of chess, he was the World No. 1 in both the lists.

Nakamura, who is also a hugely popular streamer, will certainly be one player that all his competitors will be wary of in Toronto. “He has very good chances,” says veteran Indian Grandmaster Pravin Thipsay.

“I feel Caruana has the best game suited to win a tournament like the Candidates, with its double round-robin format. I will be surprised if anybody other than Caruana or Nakamura wins the Candidates this time around. Those two look easily the best players in the field.”

If you want to bet on someone other than the talented American duo, there is Nepomniachtchi, who is playing under the flag of FIDE because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He has already contested two World title matches (against Carlsen in 2021, and then against Ding last year).

Nepomniachtchi, ranked seventh in the world, is the winner of the last two Candidates tournaments. He won the 2020-21 Candidates tournament, which was disrupted by COVID-19, and then again in 2022, when he remained unbeaten, finishing 1.5 points ahead of the second-placed Ding. Later, Ding got the chance to play the World title after Carlsen decided not to defend his crown.

So Nepomniachtchi clearly knows a thing or two about winning the Candidates tournament. Expect him to mount a strong challenge for his third straight Candidates title.

The Iranian-born French prodigy Alireza Firouzja may not have been as experienced or as successful as Nepomniachtchi at the Candidates, but he is a young exciting talent.

Carlsen had in fact said that he would be defending his World title only if Firouzja had emerged as the Candidate in 2022.

The teenager, however, could only finish sixth in a field of eight in that Candidates tournament. The World No. 6 will want to put up a better performance this time around.

The women’s section looks more open. Humpy certainly has chances, while her younger compatriot Vaishali has shown remarkable improvement of late.

The reigning Candidates champion Lei Tingjie, who lost to compatriot Ju Wenjun in the World Championship last year, is one of the main contenders. The other Chinese in the field, Tan Zhongyi, is a former World champion.

Russia’s Aleksandra Goryachkina is the highest ranked female player in Toronto, with a rating of 2553.

The other Russian, Kateryna Lagno, and Ukraine’s Anna Muzychuk are experienced campaigners, too.

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