Premier League: Statistical analysis of the title race between Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City

Defending champion Manchester City, third in the table, is set to host league-leader Arsenal in what will be a pivotal clash in the Premier League 2023-24 title race.

As the tournament moves into its business end, with 10 league games left, the competition is extremely tight at the summit. Arsenal is top on 64 points, just ahead of Liverpool on goal difference, while City is trailing by one point.

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For the first time in the Premier League era, the top three teams are divided by just one point after matchweek 28, making it the closest and most exciting title race in the league’s history.

Throughout the campaign, City, Liverpool and Arsenal have been taking turns as the leader but it remains to be seen who can finally take the title.

REMAINING FIXTURES AND OPPONENTS

Renowned commentator Peter Drury has termed the title race as a ‘10–game season’ since all three sides have an equal chance of lifting the trophy and it all comes down to the final few matches.

Looking at the remaining fixtures, it is evident that Arsenal has the toughest challenge.

All three teams are playing five home and away matches which makes it a level playing field on that front. However, the Gunners have significantly tougher opponents.

(*matches to be scheduled)

Arsenal is playing four of ‘Big Six’ sides – City, Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United and Chelsea – in the coming weeks. City, on the other hand, has to play Arsenal and Tottenham whereas Liverpool plays only two big teams (Tottenham and Manchester United) in its remaining 10 games.

All three sides will have to face fourth-place Aston Villa.

With City and Arsenal locking horns this week, Liverpool has a big advantage to take an early lead in this race.

WIN/DRAW/LOSS BREAKDOWN

Arsenal has won 20 games this season whereas Liverpool and City have 19 each. However, the Gunners have also lost the most number of games (4). Liverpool has lost only two matches, but its seven draws have taken a significant toll on its points tally. City has three losses.

FORM GUIDE – LAST 10 RESULTS 

Arsenal has been in flying form recently and has won eight out of its last 10 league games, making it a fitting league leader at the moment.

Liverpool’s four-game winning streak was halted with a 1-1 draw City.

Looking at the overall form, all three sides have won eight out of the last 10 games, but only City has avoided a loss, drawing twice. This has given the edge to Pep Guardiola’s team in terms of points through this phase. Arsenal’s two losses in December came against West Ham and Fulham.

“It’s great because obviously it shows the quality. Defensively we’re conceding very little too to get results consistently and we want more,” Arsenal head coach Mikel Arteta said about his side’s recent form.

Arsenal has registered the highest number of goals, 34, in its last ten matches. Liverpool is slightly behind with 28 goals while City on the other hand has only found the net 20 times.

Defensively, City is doing well with seven goals conceded followed by Arsenal (8) and Liverpool (10).

UNDERLYING STATS

Although Arsenal is leading the scoring charts with 70 goals, the numbers suggest that its attack is not as good as it seems. Its xG (Expected Goals) of 56.6 indicates that it should have scored way less.

Liverpool, on the other hand, is leading the xG in the league, making it the best attacking team statistically.

In terms of goal concession too, it’s a completely different story for the Reds. It has conceded 26 goals but its xGA (Expected Goals Against) is 34.5, meaning its defence has allowed a lot more scoring chances compared to City and Arsenal, but has gotten lucky, conceding fewer goals.

Its difference between xGA and GA is the second-biggest in the league, behind Manchester United.

City, on the other hand, has conceded the highest number of goals (28) out of the three but its xGA suggests it has a more composed defence than Jurgen Klopp’s men.

INJURY WOES

The German, managing his last season at Anfield, also has to deal with an injury crisis.

Thiago Alcantara and Joel Matip have been ruled out of the squad for a long period. Trent Alexander Arnold and Diego Jota are unavailable for selection due to injuries and will be back in a week or two.

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Additionally, Allison, the first-choice goalkeeper, is also ruled out due to an injury he sustained during training. 

“It’s not a real problem to be honest, as long as you have the players available, you use the boys, you know what they can do,” Klopp told reporters.

Meanwhile, Arsenal will be hopeful since forward Bukayo Saka and defender Gabriel are set to return after recovering from their hamstring and achilles injuries, respectively.

City’s Kyle Walker and John Stones sustained injuries during the international break and could miss the next couple of matches. Kevin De Bruyne, who had recently returned after a long absence due to injury, seems to have trouble with his groin again and might miss the Arsenal clash. 

Ederson and Erling Haaland too had injury concerns but both are likely to feature against Arteta’s side.

WHAT TO EXPECT?

On paper, Arsenal will be the favourite to win, but football works in mysterious ways. Arteta would know it better than most, having lost in the title race to City in the second half of the last season.

Guardiola will be looking to win a record-fourth consecutive silverware in Manchester. “If we are there (title contention) we just need to win our games. It doesn’t matter if there are two, three or four (teams), we just need to do our job. The rest doesn’t count,” Guardiola said on the ongoing title race.

And that is where the buck shall stop for the two Premier League giants, a showdown at the City of Manchester Stadium, wherein the winner might get to the driver’s seat.

Liverpool, on the other hand, will look to give its beloved boss a farewell to remember, who steered it to its first and only Premier League title.